Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Voor onderwerpen over de winter van 2013/14, met informatie en discussie over zowel het actuele als het te verwachten weer.
Martijn
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Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
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Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Do 12 Sep 2013, 15:37

Verzameling van winterverwachtingen voor de winter van 2013/14 in Europa

Dit topic is voor het verzamelen van buitenlandse, meest Engelstalige, verwachtingen voor het winterweer in de komende winter van 2013-2014, over zowel heel Europa als gebieden in Europa buiten Nederland.

Zie ook topic: Winterverwachting 2014 Nederland.

Martijn
Berichten: 951
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Ma 23 Sep 2013, 23:04

Winterverwachting voor UK & Europa van Kasim Awam

2 september 2013

Voorlopige winterverwachting van Kasim Awam, waarbij naar diverse patronen en variabelen wordt gekeken: seizoensverwachtingen voor de komende maanden van het NCEP coupled forecast system model (CFS), de Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), NAO-index, Sudden Stratospheric warming (SSW), de zeeoppervlak-temperaturen (sea surfice temperatures, SST), seizoensverwachting van het UKMO seasonal model, zonneactiviteit en sneeuwbedekking in het noordpoolgebied.

De variabelen zouden volgens de auteur zinspelen op een koude winter. Updates volgen in oktober en november.

Bron: http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/winter-forecast-201314/
UK & US Winter Prediction 2013/2014 – Unseasonably “Cold” Latest Blog.

Sep, 02, 2013 - Kasim Awan

September 2013 UK Winter 2013/2014 Forecast Update: Today’s Update covers a few Parameters which go towards Building a Forecast picture for the UK (Winter 2013/14). If you wouldn’t like to read all the Meaty info, consensus is for a Cool-cold Winter with a huge pint of Salt & uncertainty Tag, that’s because what we cover Today does build a Picture, however it’s only half of the Landscape as to what we’ll cover during October, and more significantly during November when we’ll have the Final Update.

(...)

To summarize, everything (QBO, May SSTs, UKMO & Solar Activity) hinting towards a Cool-Cold UK Winter. As explained earlier, the confidence of these Processes producing a cold Winter is around 60-70%, and these processes cover only half of what we’ll look at over the Coming months, therefore the Forecast (Cool-Cold overall), UK Winter 2013/14 is of Moderate (50%) confidence, Please return to this page duringg the 3rd of October when we’ll have another (Even meatier) look at UK Winter Weather


Zie bron voor volledig artikel.

Martijn
Berichten: 951
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Wo 25 Sep 2013, 15:57

Winterverwachting voor Europa van Joe Bastardi en Dominik Jung

7-9 september 2013

Rond 8 september gaven Joe Bastardi en Dominik Jung een winterverwachting voor winter 2014, wat o.a. van Jörg Kachelmann kritiek kreeg, die dit voornamelijk spul van de charlatan afdeling noemde, wat weer voor onderlinge woordenwisseling zorgde op o.a. twitter (zie linken in brontekst). P. Gosselin vatte één en ander samen.

Bron: http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/09/mete ... -in-a-row/

Meteorologists Point To Signs Of Another Upcoming “Nasty Winter For Europe” – Would Be Spectacular Sixth In A Row!

By P Gosselin on 9. September 2013

(...)

Although seasonal forecasts are speculative at best, meteorology indeed has advanced to a point where it is possible to get an idea of what direction the upcoming season is tending towards. Farmers have been doing this successfully for centuries.

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi in his Saturday Summary at the 7-minute mark looks at the latest NCEP NCAR global winter forecast for 2013/14. The charts point to another “brutal winter for Europe“. The forecast sees blocking and a negative NAO. Joe also tweeted that “SST analog package combined with low solar, and climate cycle (similar to early 50s) argue for nasty Euro Winter“.

Joe is not alone in pointing out that weather services are looking at a brutal European winter. German meteorologist Dominik Jung tweeted the following chart from the French CFS meteorological services which shows really nasty cold in store for January.


(...)

Moreover, the online web.de/magazine here carries the title: “Winter 2013/2014 is going to be really cold”, citing “one of the most well-known long-term models of the American Weather Service“.

Web.de writes:

“It looks like the 2013/2014 winter is going to be extremely frosty. Jung has evaluated the data: ‘Looking at these charts, it’s going to be really cold.’”

Web.de adds that signs show the winter could be a long, protracted affair:

“The cold air flow from Eastern Europe to Central Europe could strengthen considerably. [...] Also the cold winter weather should continue through February and the Southwest could be hit by the Russian beast from the east. This scenario could extend into deep into March. ‘After the last five much-too-cold winters, this development would be no real surprise and well within the realms of the possible,’ says meteorologist Jung.”

If this forecast (fraught with uncertainty) should pan out out to be true, then it would be a record six colder-than-normal winters in a row for Europe. You just couldn’t drift further away from global warming. Six in a row would be nothing short of spectacular. Such a long, protracted winter as described above would make it one of the worst in 100 years.

But not every meteorologist is convinced that long-term seasonal forecasts are of any value. Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann at Twitter, for example, scoffs at such prognoses, writing that it’s mainly stuff “from the charlatan department“.

Again we have reiterate that these forecasts are truly speculative, and all the meteorologist point this out. So there really is no need to get pissy about it.

I’m a bit skeptical of the long-term winter forecasts as well, though not as much as Mr. Kachelmann. Large global scale weather patterns can change quickly. For example there’s still lots of uncertainty as to what will happen with the ENSO in the months ahead, and if you can’t predict the ENSO for the next few months, then how can you predict the other global seasonal patterns? Another example is the hurricane season. How often have hurricane season predictions been wrong?

On the other hand, we now have more than 100 years of detailed weather data that now allow us to recognize certain repeating patterns, and so seasonal tendency forecasts are becoming a reality. You can’t just dismiss them offhand.


Zie bron voor volledige tekst en linken.


Update d.d. 30 september 2013:

Op 26 september 2013 schrijft Gosselin over de mediaberichten in Europa (waaronder Nederland en België) dat de koudste winter in 100 jaar wordt voorspelt, een ware horrorwinter des doods. Hij denkt dat de uitspraak "koudste in 100 jaar" zijn oorsprong vindt in de verwachtingen van Bastardi en Jung.

Bron: http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/26/bast ... ss-europe/
Bastardi’s / Jung’s Initial Winter Speculation Morphs Into “A Killer 2014-Winter Forecast” – Fear Spreads Across Europe!

By P Gosselin on 26. September 2013

I had to laugh reading the French reports I mention below.

A few days ago I saw the same kind of stuff in the Russian and Italian media: meteorologists and meteorological institutes forecasting a “killer 100-year 2013/14 winter“. It’s all over Europe. Where does this come from?

It seems that meteorologists Joe Bastardi’s and Dominik Jung’s preliminary, legitimate speculation of a possible colder-than-normal 2013/14 winter has been miscommunicated and morphed into a serious forecast of “a killer 100-year winter“. Everywhere in the European media I’m now seeing reports that a “really hard winter may be on the way“.
Dude, fear and a rush for snow shovels is about to break out!

First the Belgium-based, French-language news site DH.be has an article titled: “On The Way To A Winter Of Death?“.

(...)

Website CatNat.net here gives us good evidence of where the seed for the “100-year killer-winter” inadvertently got planted. CatNat writes:

…many European forecasters are predicting a cold one for 2013/2014. ‘Dominik Jung, German meteorologist, explains that next winter will be abnormally cold, and so does American Joe Bastardi, who works for weather giant AccuWeather, and who explains that ‘it’s going to be very cold’.”

Little of this is accurate, of course. Firstly, Joe stopped working for Accuweather a long time ago. Secondly I’m not aware of Joe ever saying: “It’s going to be a very cold winter.” I do recall him saying that NOAA was looking at the probability of a cold winter and that there were a couple of factors pointing to a cold winter. But he never predicted it to my knowledge.

(...)

And now it’s too late. All of Europe it seems is now convinced that the coming winter is going to be a real tough one – maybe even the worst in a 100 years! Not because Joe Bastardi and Dominik Jung predicted so, but because their original speculation somehow got miscommunicated and morphed into a dire prediction as it passed through the media grapevine.

The two recent French reports cited above are just the latest. A few days ago I saw the same stuff in Russian and Italian media. I expect to see more such reports – maybe even soon at the Beeb.

(...)


NOOT: persoonlijk denk ik dat de term "koudste winter in 100 jaar" zijn oorsprong vindt in de winterverwachting voor Europa uit Oekraïne en dat deze en andere verwachtingen op één hoop zijn geveegd.


edit: update toegevoegd
Laatst gewijzigd door Martijn op Ma 30 Sep 2013, 23:33, 2 keer totaal gewijzigd.

Martijn
Berichten: 951
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Vr 27 Sep 2013, 1:36

Winterverwachting voor Europa uit Oekraïne

18 september 2013

In Oekraïne verschenen vorige week nieuwsberichten dat meteorologen van diverse weerdiensten een strenge winter voor Europa verwachten, gebaseerd op NAO-index, zonneactiviteit en andere klimatologische indicatoren. Er wordt zelfs niet uitgesloten dat het de koudste winter voor Europa van de afgelopen 100 jaar kan worden.

Het nieuwsbericht werd vervolgens overgenomen door Russische media, en die berichten weer door Roemeense media, om vervolgens in Engelstalige media te worden aangehaald, waarna het wereldwijd werd gelezen en overgenomen.

Bron: http://www.rbc.ua/rus/digests/other/sin ... 2013103100
18.09.2013 10:31

Синоптики прогнозируют Европе настоящий ледниковый период этой зимой

Грядущая зима в Европе пополнит список зим этого столетия с аномальными морозами.

Об этом сообщили специалисты сразу нескольких авторитетных метеослужб.

Данный прогноз основан на расчете климатических индексов, из чего следует, что зимой в Европу будет происходить перенос арктических воздушных масс и масс с северо-востока.

Кроме того, холодную зиму предвещают так называемая отрицательная североатлантическая осцилляция и снижение солнечной активности. Начало подобного климатического цикла имело место в 50-х годах прошлого века, когда аномальные морозы держались не только всю зиму, но и начало весны.

Таким образом, специалисты не исключают, что эта зима может стать самой холодной за последние 100 лет. Впрочем, более точно спрогнозировать характер будущей зимы можно будет только через несколько месяцев, когда у них будут уточненные данные.


Vertaling:

18.09.2013 10:31

Meteorologen voorspellen een echte ijstijd voor Europa deze winter

De komende winter in Europa zal toetreden tot de lijst van winters met abnormale vorst deze eeuw.

Dit werd gemeld door de specialisten van diverse gerenommeerde weerdiensten.

Deze prognose is gebaseerd op de berekening van de klimatologische indices, wat betekent dat de winter in Europa de transport van arctische luchtmassa's en massa's vanuit het noordoosten zal zijn.

Bovendien zijn een zogenaamde negatieve Noord Atlantische Oscillatie en de vermindering van de zonneactiviteit een voorbode voor een koude winter. Het begin van deze klimaat cyclus vond plaats in de jaren '50 van de vorige eeuw, toen de abnormale koude niet alleen gedurende de winter standhield, maar ook in het begin van de lente.

Daarom sluiten deskundigen niet uit dat deze winter de koudste van de afgelopen 100 jaar zou kunnen worden. Echter, meer nauwkeuriger verwachtingen van de aard van de komende winter zal mogelijk zijn na slechts een paar maanden, wanneer ze bijgewerkte informatie zullen hebben.

Martijn
Berichten: 951
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Ma 30 Sep 2013, 16:20

Voorlopige winterverwachting voor UK en Europa van Gavin Partridge

22 en 29 september 2013

Gavin Partridge geeft in twee video's een overzicht van de stand van zaken m.b.t. winter 2013-2014. Ten eerste de seizoensmodellen. Er zijn nog niet zo veel of bestrijken nog niet de hele winter, zegt hij, maar het volgende overzicht van seizoensmodellen geeft hij in oktober en dan zijn er veel meer modellen beschikbaar. Verder worden zon, sneeuw, ijs en zeewatertemperaturen besproken. Hieronder staan de videolinken met beschrijving.

NB: een definitieve wintervoorspelling wordt gepubliceerd op 1 december 2013.

Videolink: http://youtu.be/KnraigDR6IM
First Winter 13/14 Seasonal Model Round-Up
Gavin Partridge
Gepubliceerd op 22 sep 2013


In de eerste video komen een aantal seizoensmodellen aan bod:

- 500 mb HGT, T2m en PRECIP based on SST CA Forecast (Huug van den Dool, Climate Prediction Center, NCEP)
- CFSv2 seasonal & monthly z700 anomalies and total.
- UK met office (UKMO): ensemble mean anomaly: mean sea level pressure & 2m temperature & precipitation.
- Jamstec IOD model: predicted DJF2013/2014 temperatuur en neerslag anomalieën.

Citaat uit de video:
Overall the trend for all this is that we're looking at a colder than average winter (...) but of course we haven't got that many models to go.


Videolink: http://youtu.be/UdxQrSfyg5U
Second Winter 13-14 Round Up

Gavin Partridge
Gepubliceerd op 29 sep 2013


In de tweede video komen aan bod:

-Beijing Climate Center: NCC/BCC seasonal forecast: 500Hpa height and its anomaly, most likely temperature categories, most likely precipitation categories
-zonneactiviteit, zonnecyclus
-zeeoppervlakte-temperaturen (SST anomalies)
-orkaan seizoensdata
-zeeijs in het noordpoolgebied
-sneeuwbedekking in Rusland (Siberië)

De sneeuw bedekking van dit jaar wordt vergeleken met die van alle jaren sinds 1998 op dezelfde datum, en het blijkt dat we dit jaar zo'n beetje de grootste sneeuwbedekking hebben van al deze jaren.

Website van Gavin Partridge: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/


Update 18 oktober 2013: derde winter 2013/14 overzicht:

In deze derde video worden weer diverse modellen, de zeewatertemperatuur, de sneeuwbedekking, de zonneactiviteit, etc. besproken.

Videolink: http://youtu.be/POuyWnevYeM
Third Winter 13-14 Round Up

Gavin Partridge
Gepubliceerd op 13 okt 2013



Update 27 oktober 2013:

In de vierde video worden wederom diverse modellen, de zeewatertemperatuur, de sneeuwbedekking, de zonneactiviteit, etc. besproken.

Videolink: http://youtu.be/Nli_lfkU80E
Fourth Winter 13-14 Round Up

Gavin Partridge
Gepubliceerd op 20 okt 2013


De volgende video is een tweede winter 13/14 seizoensmodellenoverzicht, die specifiek gaat over langere termijn-modellen die een verwachting geven voor het winterseizoen. Er zijn inmiddels meer modellen beschikbaar dan bij de eerste video. In november zullen er nog wel wat updates komen, kijk daarvoor op de site van Gavin Partridge.

Videolink: http://youtu.be/ritNKVo2F5k
Second Seasonal Model Round Up

Gavin Partridge
Gepubliceerd op 27 okt 2013


NB: op 1 december geeft Gavin Partridge zijn winterverwachting voor winter 2014. Deze zal in een apart bericht in dit topic worden geplaatst.


edit: vr 18 okt 2013 1:51
edit: zo 27 okt 2013 17:28
Laatst gewijzigd door Martijn op Zo 27 Okt 2013, 17:28, 2 keer totaal gewijzigd.

Martijn
Berichten: 951
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Do 3 Okt 2013, 13:55

Winterverwachting voor UK en Europa van James Madden van Exacta Weather

4 september 2013

De verkorte versie van de wintervoorspelling 2013-2014 van James Madden van ExactaWeather is al op 4 september 2013 door iemand op een forum geplaatst. De datum van publicatie van de wintervoorspelling is onbekend. Dit is de eerste voorspelling die vrij gedetailleerde voorspellingen doet over wanneer en wat er in de wintermaanden zou staan te gebeuren qua winterweer. Duidelijk is dat er een strenge winter wordt verspeld met veel sneeuw.

Bronnen:
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html
http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topi ... 12442&nmt=
exactaweather.com

UK & N Ire Winter Weather Forecast 2013/14 + Major Snow Periods

December 2013

The first month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to see a very cold and snowy start to winter. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. The northern half of the country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the vast majority of the whole month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of north-east England. Parts of southern England, Wales, and the Midlands are also likely to
experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout December, especially in parts of southern England and Wales. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout the early part of the December period too.

December Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for most parts of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, and even more so throughout the Christmas period and into the early part of 2014. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -20C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime
at times too, but especially more so towards the start and end of the this forecasting period.

December Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow across many parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for some lengthy periods of time in December. The risk of snowfall will remain with much of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 23rd to the 31st December (Especially in northern, eastern and southern parts). A full and more detailed snow risk forecast will be issued to purchasers of this forecast later in the year (normally £10)

January 2014

The second month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to be exceptionally cold and very snowy. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country, and a scenario similar to December 2010 or worse is plausible. The vast majority of the whole country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the whole of the month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of southern England. Parts of
northern England, eastern England, Wales, western England, the Midlands, and Northern Ireland are also likely to experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout January. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption on a prolific scale to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout much of the January period too.

January Temperatures - Way below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures quite consistently during the evenings, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. There may even be the possibility of temperature records being broken in places, especially in parts of Scotland and Ireland, towards the start of this forecasting period. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -28C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing across the country during the daytime too. There is also a good probability for the development of ice floes, which will be visible from land in various parts of the country too.

January Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some very heavy falls of snow across most parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for the vast majority of January. Snow drifts of several feet are also a distinct possibility for this part of the forecasting period. The risk of snowfall will remain with large parts of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 1st to the 15th January. A full and more detailed snow risk forecast will be issued to purchasers of this forecast later in the year (normally £10)

February 2014

The final month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to continue with the cold and snowy theme. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. Many parts of the country are likely to experience a run of below average temperatures throughout the month and multiple major snow events, especially in parts of northern and southern England. It is likely that there will be disruption to the public transport network across these parts at times and school closures throughout the February period too. However, a number of brief periods of moderation can’t be ruled for this part of the forecasting period (normal winter conditions), especially in the latter part of this forecasting period.

February Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET), especially to the north of the country. Temperatures may also exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -18C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime at times too,
but not consistently due to a number of brief periods of moderation for this part of the forecasting period.

February Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some significant falls of snow across parts of the country, in particular, in parts of northern and southern England. The risk of major snowfall is most likely throughout the period of the 15th to the 25th February in these parts.

Martijn
Berichten: 951
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Vr 18 Okt 2013, 13:36

Wintervoorspelling op de Daily Express

12 oktober 2013

Tja, is dit een sensatie-artikel, een serieuze voorspelling, of een combinatie van beide? De verwachting voor de maand november is direct al heel koud met veel sneeuw, dus we zullen al snel zien of er iets van uitkomt.

Bron: http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/436170 ... r-November

Worst winter for decades: Record-breaking snow predicted for November

BRITAIN is braced for the "worst winter in decades" with the first major snowfall expected in weeks.

By: Nathan Rao
Published: Sat, October 12, 2013

Forecasters last night warned the entire country is set for a horror freeze which will bring brutal winds and fierce blizzards.

Temperatures have already started to plunge as a swathe of cold air from the Arctic has swept across the UK in the past few days.

The first long-range forecasts warn of "recordbreaking snowfall" next month.

Heavy wintry showers are expected to cause widespread chaos with below-average temperatures possibly lingering until February.


Long-range forecasters blamed the position of a fast-flowing band of air known as the jet stream near to Britain and high pressure for the extreme conditions. Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said: 'We are looking at a potentially paralysing winter, the worst for decades, which could at times grind the nation to a halt.

'Persistent cold snaps with some very heavy snowfall are likely, and I would not be surprised if some records are not broken this year.

'The main issue will be the extreme cold which is showing signs of really bedding in, thanks to freezing winds from the north."

He blamed the 'poorly positioned" jet stream which is expected to be 'blocked" south of the UK, allowing a continual flow of freezing Arctic air.

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said it was likely to be the worst winter for more than 100 years.

He said: 'A horror winter scenario is likely to bring another big freeze with copious snow for many parts.


'There is also a high risk that we will experience a scenario similar to December 2010 or much worse at times, especially in January.

'This is likely to produce major disruption to public transport and school closures on a prolific scale."

He went on: 'The cold theme from the latter part of October is likely to continue into November - and for the vast majority of the month.

'November could turn out to be a record-breaking month. There is the potential for some significant falls of snow. The northern half is likely to experience the worst conditions.

(...)

Martijn
Berichten: 951
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
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Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Vr 18 Okt 2013, 13:52

Kritiek van Met Office op de wintervoorspellingen

12 oktober 2013

Net als in Nederland en België is er ook in de UK kritiek op de winterweer voorspellingen dat de strengste winter in decennia er aan zou komen. Hieronder een reactie van het MetOffice ("KNMI" van UK) op deze voorspellingen.

Bron: http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013 ... headlines/

Winter Forecasting – Responding to the headlines

12 10 2013

Once again it is the season for speculation and big headlines regarding what the weather will do over the winter period. The front page of the Daily Express today claims: ‘Worst winter for decades: Record-breaking snow predicted for November’.

We saw similar headlines last year and instead winter 12/13 ended up being only the 43rd coldest on record with an average temperature of 3.3C and flooding until the turn of the year.

What the Daily Express has failed to explain to its readers is that there is absolutely no certainty about what weather the UK will see over the winter period. The science simply does not exist to make detailed, long-term forecasts for temperature and snowfall even for the end of November, let alone for the winter period, which does not officially start until 1 December.

While we have seen a return to more normal, cooler temperatures for this time of year, this is no indication of what we can expect over the next four months with regards to temperatures and when we might see snow. It is far too early to tell.

Ultimately, we’re heading into winter and it is perfectly possible that we will see the whole range of weather that we get in winter at some point over the coming months, including snow and freezing temperatures, but also heavy rain, windy weather and mild conditions too.

Our five day forecasts and warnings will provide you with the best possible guidance on any periods of cold weather, frost or the likelihood of snow, giving detailed local information across the UK to help you make the most of the weather over the coming months.

Martijn
Berichten: 951
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Do 31 Okt 2013, 13:07

Winterverwachting voor Europa van Georg Mueller van Point Carbon

9 oktober 2013

Volgens Georg Mueller wijzen modellen er op dat we geen koude winter krijgen. Hij voorspelt dat de eerste helft van de winter vrijwel normaal wordt waarvan december het koudst wordt, mogelijk kouder dan normaal. De tweede helft van de winter zou vervolgens zachter dan normaal verlopen.

Bron: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/ ... 9Q20131009

Europe late winter may be mild, Dec cold - German forecaster

FRANKFURT | Wed Oct 9, 2013 5:15am EDT

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Northern and continental Europe are expected to see a possibly colder than normal December followed by a milder than normal set-up in the second half of the 2013/14 winter, German meteorologist Georg Mueller said in a monthly report.

Mueller who monitors weather on behalf of Point Carbon, a Thomson Reuters company, issued a seasonal report covering Oct 13 through to March 2014, as Europe nears its peak winter period.

"The models suggest a near normal first half of winter with December being the potentially coldest month," he said.

"Late winter (Feb-March) has signs for increasing Atlantic influence, which could bring partly wetter and milder than normal weather to the continent and southern Scandinavia," he added.


While major wet and windy spells were not on the cards for the time being, they remained possible, he also said.

Forecasts of seasonal patterns are needed by electricity and gas companies to assess consumer demand for heating and lighting and drive utility buying of commodities such as coal and gas. (Reporting by Vera Eckert; editing by Keiron Henderson)

Martijn
Berichten: 951
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Do 31 Okt 2013, 14:32

Eerste gedachten over Winter 2013/2014 voor UK en West-Europa van Brian Gaze van TheWeatherOutlook (TWO)

16 oktober 2013

Een definitieve wintervoorspelling van TheWeatherOutlook voor winter 2014 wordt eind november uitgegeven. In onderstaand artikel worden de eerste gedachten over de winter weergegeven.

De voorlopige conclusie is dat het er vrij evenwichtig uitziet, dat er geen sterke signalen zijn voor een strenge winter, maar ook niet voor een zachte winter. Desondanks zou het de auteur verrassen als we een heel milde winter krijgen met slechts korte koudeprikken, i.p.v. in ieder geval één significante koude periode. We lijken nog steeds in een periode te zitten waarin koude winters relatief vaak voorkomen en het is goed om dit te onthouden.

De koudste periode zou wel eens in februari kunnen komen, wanneer het boven de Atlantische oceaan rustiger wordt en de kans op een hogedruk-blokkade boven Scandinavië toeneemt. Als de kou inderdaad komt, dan is het mogelijk vooral droog winterweer met minder sneeuw dan we in recente winters hebben gezien.

Tot slot concludeert de auteur dat de kans op een winter die dicht bij normaal of kouder dan normaal ligt iets groter is dan de kans op een zachter dan normale winter.

Bron: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twooth ... bg&id=2079

Winter 2013/14 initial thoughts

Introduction
TheWeatherOutlook winter forecast for 2013/14 will be issued in late November and made freely available on the site. It is based on a number of factors such as weather patterns in recent seasons and this autumn. It is too early to say what the winter forecast will suggest this year but a few early thoughts are possible. Before reading on remember the caveats. Firstly, long range weather predictions for this part of the world tend to be inaccurate, and secondly, this is not the TWO winter forecast.

Seasonal forecast models
A number of seasonal forecast models are available but the skill level they offer for this part of the world is low. In other words they aren't very accurate. However, I do use them as one of the inputs when making the winter forecast. Recently I've looked at the output from the International Research Institute (IRI), Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2), UK Met Office, JMA, Beijing, and Jamstec models.

The model outputs are updated at regular intervals, and tend to be expressed in terms of anomalies for temperature, pressure and precipitation. I'll not not discuss them in detail, but on balance they seem to be suggesting a slightly increased chance of high latitude northern blocking this winter. This pattern would increase the chances of a colder than average winter in the UK and western Europe. Most of these models will update again at least once before the winter begins.

Conclusion
No strong signal, but possibly leaning towards a colder than average winter across all parts of the country.

Pattern matching
As we’re only half way through the autumn it is too early to draw conclusions here. However, there have been suggestions of northern blocking developing. On the other hand recent runs of medium range computer models have tended to suggest a very typical and average set-up through the second half of October.

Conclusion
Mixed, so no strong signal as the pattern.

ENSO
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to be neutral, possibly becoming slightly more positive.

Conclusion
No strong signal, but certaintly shouldn't preclude the chances of a colder than average winter.

Atlantic SSTs
Currently the SSTs are generally above average across much of the Atlantic and with a weak hurricane season this probably isn't a good set up to strongly force northern blocking. However, the May SST signal suggested the possibility of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) this winter. A link between the May SST profile and the NAO of the following winter has been established so this should not be ignored.

Conclusion
No strong signal.

Solar Activity
Solar activity has increased recently and is currently at moderate levels.

Conclusion
Less favourable to cold conditions than a couple of years ago. Note that the link between solar activity and winter weather patterns in western Europe is very controversial.

Siberian snow cover
Snow cover across parts of Siberia has built early and extensively. The link between Siberian snow cover and the west European winter is disputed but above average levels are thought by some to increase the chances of high pressure blocking and the colder backing further west.

Conclusion
Weak link, but probably favouring to a colder than average winter.

Other teleconnections (pressure patterns)
In addition to the NAO, a number of other teleconnections are often considered when making long range forecasts. These include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO has attracted quite a lot of attention recently despite being discovered in the 1950s. It is currently in a positive phase which is thought to increase the chances of westerly winds at our latitude during the winter months.

Conclusion
No strong signal for forecasting. The interaction between these teleconnections isn't well understood and even when taken in isolation there is little consistency in their state and the west European winter.

Stratospheric temperature forecasts
In simple terms stratospheric warming is believed to encourage northern blocking. The problem is forecasting stratospheric temperatures, and fully understanding the time lag and how to use this as a forecasting tool for a small part of the Earth such as the UK. Stratospheric warming was widely discussed during winter 2012/13 and the views and conclusions reached were in my view very mixed.

Conclusion
Whilst I'm interested I don't think it's possible to draw conclusions in this area, so to me there is no strong signal.


Recent weather
Summer 2013 was often very warm and dry. The first half of autumn has been quite mixed with current signals offering a conflicting outlook, with blocking and more mobile patterns possible through the rest of October and the first half of November.

Cold winters do tend to come in clusters, but even during these periods mild winter do occur. We may well still be in a period when the chances of a particular winter being cold are higher than average.

Conclusion
The warm and dry conditions in the summer may lead some people to conclude a colder winter is more likely because there was a lot of high pressure blocking. I disagree with this and would be more inclined to forecast a cold winter after a wet and cool summer with everything else being equal.

So what about winter 2013/14?
Too early to make a call. At the present time things look quite balanced with very few strong signals. Despite this I'd be surprised if we have a very mild winter with only short cold snaps rather than at least one significant cold spell. We still seem to be in a period when cold winters occur relatively frequently and this is worth remembering. The coldest conditions could well come in February when the Atlantic naturally tends to become quieter and the chances of high pressure blocking over Scandinavia increases. If the cold does come then perhaps it will be mostly dry with less snow than we've seen at times in recent winters. To conclude the discussion I'd say that on balance the chances of a close to average or colder than average winter are slightly higher than the chances of a milder than average winter. However, remember that developments in the weather during the rest of autumn could well mean the TWO winter forecast will reach a significantly different conclusion.

Issued 16/10/2013 © Brian Gaze


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