Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Voor onderwerpen over de winter van 2013/14, met informatie en discussie over zowel het actuele als het te verwachten weer.
Berichten: 987
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Ma 4 Nov 2013, 14:35

Voorlopige gedachten over winter 2014 voor UK en Ierland van Ray van Reality Weather

30 oktober 2013

In onderstaand artikel de laatste gedachten over de komende winterperiode van Reality Weather. Het is dus geen definitieve wintervoospelling. Het gaat over de kansen op winterweer in de UK en Ierland, maar dat is ook wel grotendeels van toepassing op Nederland en West-Europa.

De auteur voorspelt dat het winterseizoen kouder dan normaal wordt, met enige blokkadevorming laat in november met een beetje sneeuw. Pas ver in december komen de eerste kansen op meer georganiseerde strenge koude periodes gedurende de tweede helft van de maand, maar dat is dan nog niet gegarandeerd. In het nieuwe jaar wordt de kans groter, met van half januari tot en met februari de grootste kans op streng winterweer. Een herhaling van een koude maart zoals in de afgelopen winter zou de auteur niet verbazen.

Koude winters komen vaak in reeksen maar met zachte winters tussendoor. Echter momenteel zijn er veel factoren die de auteur doen denken dat we een kouder dan normaal winterseizoen krijgen. Maar in tegenstelling tot de koude vorstperiodes in recente jaren, komt deze zeer waarschijnlijk pas in het nieuwe jaar (dus niet eerder dan januari), als we deze winter weer één krijgen. Er is volgens de auteur zeker een hoge kans op uitzonderlijk winters weer in de komende maanden. Een zeer goede kans op kou en sneeuw deze winter.

Bron: ... ow-winter/

Latest Winter Thoughts / Good Chance of Cold and Snow this Winter

October 30, 2013 By Ray

Irl / UK

Remember this is not a forecast folks, just some early thoughts on the Winter ahead.

Hi, folks, the AO is running in positive mode now while the NAO after a period of a noticeably negative phases is hovering just a little over the neutral phase. Many speculate that both will make a huge flip in mid-November bringing strong blocking and severe cold weather to the UK and Ireland. Many more are speculating that the mildest Winter in years is to come.

Of course, there is the CFS [Climate Forecast System] model which leads many of these speculating ideas. After a period of showing strong blocking across the northern hemisphere during the late Summer months, the model [system] then switched to suggesting a milder based Winter. However it has now switched back to the colder idea, making the switch in recent times.

I have followed the CFS closely for about 2 years now and while it can a little amusing to watch, I can safely say that it certainly can’t and shouldn’t be trusted.

My original idea for Winter ’13/’14 sticks. The season is likely to be colder than normal, some blocking in late November with a little snow around, mostly in the NE mainland UK. It’s well into December before we see a chance of more organized severe cold spells during the second half of the months but they are still not guaranteed. With the turn of the New Year, the risk increases even further through the middle of January and the peaked risk stays there right through February. A repeat March from last year would far from surprise me.

Cold winters often come in series but with odd mild ones mixed here and there. Currently there are many factors, away from the CFS of course, that lead to my thinking of a colder than average season ahead. But unlike the large freezes of recent years, if we are to receive one this year, it would most likely be in the New Year. Certainly, there is the high chances of some exceptionally wintry weather in the months ahead / A very good chance of cold and snow this Winter !


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Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Ma 4 Nov 2013, 22:15

Winterverwachting voor Europa van Alex Sosnowski van Accuweather

2 november 2013

Accuweather verwacht voor West-Europa een zachte winter met weinig sneeuwval. Als "wildcard" kans noemen ze een eventuele koudegolf in Europa laat in de winter mocht er een zogenaamde "sudden stratospheric warming" optreden. Volgens de winterverwachting van MeteoColsult is de kans daarop deze winter echter klein.

Bron: ... r/19131940

Europe Winter Forecast: Less Snow for Most; Ample Snow for Winter Games

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
November 02, 2013; 3:08 PM

Much of Europe will experience drier and warmer-than-average conditions spanning December, January and February. Areas from the Mediterranean Sea to the Balkans will be much less stormy, when compared to last winter, but ample snow is forecast for the mountain venues of the XXII Olympic Winter Games.


The storm track affecting part of Europe during late October into early November will shift.

According to AccuWeather Europe Weather Expert Alan Reppert, "The main storm track will set up farther to the north and east than what we typically see during most of the winter and will have a significant effect on temperatures and precipitation."

Cold Not Likely to Persist

With most storms tracking to the north this winter, areas from the United Kingdom and France to Germany, Switzerland, Austria and Italy are likely to experience temperatures averaging near to above normal.

From Poland to Romania, the rather frequent storms will displace the cold air and generally prevent it from lasting very long.

For Spain, Portugal and western France, the coldest part of the winter, relative to normal will be the first part.

"Chilly waters off the coasts of Portugal, northern Spain and western France will result in a cool December, but as the waters trend toward average later in the season, so will the Iberian Peninsula trend warmer," Reppert said.

Compared to last winter, the number of rain and mountain snowstorms from Italy to Greece and the Balkans will be lower. Storms in general in the region will less intense.

Snowfall Will Be Lean in Central and Southern Areas

The northeastward skewed storm track will tend to limit snowfall throughout much of Europe. The elevation at which snow falls will generally become higher than average from the Pyrenees to the Alps and Carpathian Mountains as warmer air moves in.

"Some ski resorts in the Alps could struggle to get enough snow over the winter, especially those at lower elevations or at the bases of the larger resorts," Reppert said.

Unsettled weather is most likely to occur during the beginning and end of the winter from central France to Germany and much of Poland, with a dry mid-season.

The wettest part of the winter for the United Kingdom and Ireland is likely to be later in January and February.

"Even with a projected stormier end to the winter, rain and snow should be no more than average for the British Isles," Reppert stated.

Areas most likely to have near- to above-average snowfall will reach from Scandinavia to part of western Russia.

"The coldest part of the winter relative to normal for northeastern Europe, including western Russia is likely to be December into early January, which should contribute to more typical snowfall for the region, relative to other areas," Reppert said.

Expected (Dec. Through Feb.) Snowfall for a Few Cities

City | Amount (Inches)
Moscow: 40-50
Berlin: 3-6
London: 1-2
Paris: 1-2
Rome: 0

Early Outlook for Winter Olympics

In much of southwestern Russia, including the Caucasus Mountains, snowfall is likely to be a little shy of average.

The city of Sochi, Russia, is the host city of the XXII Winter Olympics, scheduled for Feb. 7 to 23, 2014. Sochi is located on the northeastern shores of the Black Sea with the Caucasus Range to its back to the northeast.

According to AccuWeather World Weather Expert Jim Andrews, "The winter climate is a little similar to the coastal areas and Cascade Range of the Pacific Northwest in the United States."

Despite the presence of palm trees in the city, temperatures can dip to freezing. In terms of precipitation, it can also snow a bit once in a while at the resort city.

Skiing, sledding and boarding events for the games will take place at the Krasnaya Polyana Mountains, within the Caucasus Range. Between 40 and 50 inches of snow is forecast to fall this winter near the base of the mountains, with much heavier snow at intermediate and high elevations. The majority of the snow for the season should have already fallen on the mountains by the time the games begin.

"Snowfall in the nearby Caucasus Range varies greatly and increases with elevation, so even in a winter season where slightly below average snow is forecast, there should be plenty [of snow] on the slopes," Andrews said.


There is the chance of a cold wave invading western and northern Europe late in the winter.

Such an event might be tied in with sudden warming of a high altitude layer of the atmosphere known as the stratosphere.
Temperatures in the stratosphere are a reverse, or mirror-effect, of the lower atmosphere.

According to AccuWeather Long Range Weather Expert Paul Pastelok, "Sudden stratospheric warming events cannot be predicted in advance, but when they do occur, a week to ten days later, they signal a southward release of cold air in the lower part of the atmosphere."

When a stratospheric warming event occurs, there is the challenge of figuring out where the compensating main thrust of cold air will go. It is likely to bring an arctic outbreak to part of one or two continents: North America, Europe or Asia, but never throughout all three.

AccuWeather Meteorologists Jason Nicholls and Eric Wanenchak contributed content to this story.

Berichten: 987
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Ma 25 Nov 2013, 16:15

Winterverwachting voor Verenigde Staten / Noordelijk halfrond van The Weather Centre

October 24, 2013

Eigenlijk gaat deze winterverwachting over Amerika, maar de besproken fenomenen zijn veelal relevant voor het hele Noordelijke halfrond, dus ook Europa en Nederland, en geven interessante informatie.

De volgende fenomenen en indexen komen aan bod:
-El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
-Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)
-Zonnecyclus en zonneactiviteit
-Stratosfeer: opwarming boven de Beringzee, warmte in centraal/oost VS, koele temperaturen boven Groenland, sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)
-Snow Advance Index (SAI)
-North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
-Arctic Oscillation (AO)
-Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC)

Ik citeer alleen de inleiding en de conclusie voor de temperatuur, aangezien het een lang artikel is met diverse afbeeldingen. Kijk dus op de bron om het artikel volledig te lezen.

Bron: ... ecast.html

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Final 2013-2014 Winter Forecast

By Andrew at 5:00 PM

"Slow start to winter should deliver harsh January, February for Central US..."

Hello everyone, this is the Final 2013-2014 Winter Forecast from The Weather Centre. This post will finalize my projections for this winter, with 3 month-averaged temperature, precipitation and snowfall graphics. Month by month descriptions will be written below each graphic. If you do not wish to see the discussion, you may scroll down to the graphics to see the forecast itself.


Taking into account all of that information, and then some, here is the Final 2013-2014 Winter Forecast.

Confidence: High

I'm anticipating a warm start to winter, with that idea coming from Phase 6 of the positive QBO as well as the LRC, which should see the warmth observed in early October repeating in mid-November into early December. This warmth should be held up throughout the East US, and into the Great Lakes and Midwest. Expect the northern Plains to escape the worst of the warmth.

As the QBO transitions to Phase 7, and the LRC goes into its next cycle, the temperature trend ought to be on a decisive colder path. The Plains region into the Midwest and Great Lakes should see the brunt of the cold in January, with slight ridging in the Southeast offering the opportunity for warmer than normal temperatures in that area. Depending on if the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation is still present by the first month of 2014, this ridging in the Southeast could be enhanced, and the overall storm track would be affected. Prospects of a negative Arctic Oscillation for this winter, as well as the heightened chance of stratospheric warming events in the latter half of the season should see a colder trend in much of the nation.

More of the same from January is a good summary of what the nation can expect in terms of temperatures. The stratosphere should be in a decent amount of turmoil for February, as long as the current stratospheric temperature trends and changing QBO phase cooperate. Once again, eyes will be on the Plains, Midwest and parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes for the brunt of the cold for the last month of traditional winter.


In een eerdere voorlopige verwachting van 31 augustus 2013 werden de Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) en Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) ook nog besproken, maar die zouden niet veranderd zijn:

Bron: ... ecast.html

2013-2014 Official Winter Forecast

"Much of the nation can expect some frigid weather this winter."

Hello everyone, and welcome to The Weather Centre's Official 2013-2014 Winter Forecast. This forecast will examine the indices most likely to play a significant role in the coming winter, as well as several hints and clues we can pick up from the weather we experienced this past summer. Bear with me- this post is quite long, but I promise you it will still be easy to understand no matter how into weather you may be.


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Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Ma 25 Nov 2013, 22:16

Winterverwachting voor Europa van "Lomond Snowstorm" van

3 november 2013

Deze winterverwachting is van "Lomond Snowstorm" van het forum van en richt zich specifiek op de vooruitzichten voor Engeland, Schotland, Wales en Ierland, maar zal ook meestal voor de Benelux gelden.

Ook in deze verwachting worden weer diverse variabelen meegenomen die van invloed kunnen zijn op het winterweer in onder meer West-Europa, namelijk de volgende:

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events (SSWs), omvang Arctische zeeijs, omvang sneeuw op Eurasië / toename sneeuwbedekking in de herfst (Snow Advance Index voor oktober), activiteit van de zon, zeeoppervlaktetemperaturen (SSTs) van de Atlantische oceaan, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) en Arctic Oscillation (AO), lange termijn (seizoen) verwachtingsmodellen, Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum (GLAAM),en wintercomposities van winters waarbij de variabelen grofweg overeenkomen met die van de huidige winter. Interessant gegeven daarbij: op basis van een aantal variabelen zou de winter van 1991 het meest overeenkomen met de situatie van de winter van 2013/14 (winters vanaf 1958 zijn beoordeeld).

Aangezien dit een lang artikel is met meerdere afbeeldingen, zal ik alleen de conclusie citeren. Kijk dus op de bron voor het volledige artikel met bijbehorende afbeeldingen.

Bron: ... st-201314/

Lomond Snowstorm's (epic novel) Winter Forecast 2013/14

Posted by LomondSnowstorm, 03 November 2013


2013/14 Winter Forecast


A very zonal period to start the month following a short, sharp Arctic blast at the end of November, with west-northwesterly winds and very limited blocking. Near constant low pressure systems will bring wind and rain throughout, with only brief drier interludes. Temperatures above average in England and Wales but near or even slightly below average for Scotland, where colder upper air temperatures will bring the odd smattering of snow even to lower levels in spite of a lack of frost, with precipitation above average initially everywhere. Perhaps something along the lines of this:

From around the 12th onwards things will quieten down, with high pressure building in from the south, bringing a brief spell of very mild southerlies followed by a dry and eventually frosty spell in the run up to Christmas. Temperatures above average everywhere up to the 20th but cooling down towards average from the south as heights transfer northwards, precipitation generally below average away from the far northwest Highlands where they’ll be around average. By Christmas, heights will transfer westwards with an initial spell of rain followed by a genuinely cold northerly blast as low heights dive temporary southeastwards, bringing more widespread snowfall and low temperatures, although with accumulation generally confined to the usual spots (which of course vary depending on the exact wind direction) before the dam breaks and the heights sink once more by month’s end. Temperatures will be generally above average for most of England and Wales, with an initial CET punt of 5.6C, the Scottish mean will sit around average at 3.4C. Precipitation will be marginally above average for all of Scotland and much of northwest England but for southern England and Ireland it will be around or below average. In other words, a fairly typical December.


I’m anticipating a switch around in January, where transient colder snaps brought about by an excessively strong vortex are replaced by a more wintry pattern. Nonetheless, it won’t start off that way – more bog standard Atlantic frontal systems will dominate the first half, with temperatures and precipitation widely above average. However, as the month progresses, mid latitude height rises will ridge northwards, with the jet finally being diverted southwards with colder air encroaching from the east. With still a large chunk of the vortex situated over Canada the height rises will take a week or two to become properly established, with a number of transitional snow-rain-snow events interspersed with more settled milder days, and temperatures will generally be around or slightly below average, but eventually, by around the 25th, a cold easterly flow will be established, ushering in one of the main cold spells of the winter. With the centre of the high between Iceland and Scandinavia rather than further east and with still a fairly impressive cold pool over the Arctic the UK could tap into some severely cold uppers if the setup works out. This would bring a period of very low maxima, perhaps sub zero, with the potential for significant snowfall right across the British Isles, but particularly for areas exposed to the easterly wind (including the Forth-Clyde streamer area) where showers would merge into longer periods of snow, although with low heights anywhere in the south of England could see some impressive snowfall totals, perhaps upwards of 8 inches quite widely IF we tap into the cold pool before the flow is cut off. (Note: the timing and severity of this event are very much low confidence, so I’d wait until at least early January before stocking up on tinned goods). Temperatures for the month as a whole will be below average but not massively so – a CET of 3.1C and a Scottish mean of 1.8C are my current bets. Precipitation totals generally around average, with the exception of the Western Isles and Northwest Highlands where it will be somewhat drier than average and southern England where it will be above.


With the easterly flow cut off by the start of the month as heights lower from the north a brief spell of anticyclonic weather will prevail through the first part of February, away from the far south of England where the odd snow shower may remain. Temperatures at the surface would be well below average even without the upper cold pool as the snow fields caused minima to drop like a stone under clear skies. With the southerly arm of the jet still dominant, and the vortex still not really managing to get a foothold east of Canada, a reload of the cold looks likely, with a weak Scandi trough/ weakfish southeast Greenland high providing a possible route, propped up by the strong southerly jet. This would give more snow to eastern parts, with Aberdeenshire in particular taking a bad hit, and temperatures way below average once again. By mid-month the pattern will look to shift westwards, with height rises over Western Greenland, leaving us in a west based –NAO state (think February 2010) with a rather messy cold trough, bringing a rather dour mix of snow, sleet and cold rain from a variety of wind vectors before eventually height rises over southeastern Europe build northwestwards and introduce a milder flow to end the month.

Precipitation once again above average, although moreso in eastern parts, with temperatures very much suppressed until the very end. My CET punt is a very cold 0.8C, the coldest February since the sub zero 1986 (one of the ‘lesser’ composite years incidentally) with the Scottish mean a positively balmy 1C.

I hope I haven’t bored/scared you too much, and I’ll be looking to update it throughout the winter and give an honest assessment of if/when it goes completely bust and we end up with a heatwave early February. I’ll be updating this in the next few days too with one or two synoptic charts which maybe give a better representation of my thoughts than the description does.

Berichten: 987
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Di 26 Nov 2013, 13:31

Wintervoorspelling voor West-Europa op

13 november 2013

Dit is waarschijnlijk meer een sensatie-artikel, op basis van voorspellingen van de controversiële personen James Madden en Jonathan Powell. Deze voorspellingen van een hororwinter leidde tot een tegenreactie van Weerplaza.

Bron: ... -next-week

Coldest winter in modern times on way with snow forecast for Britain starting next week

HEAVY SNOW WARNING: Shock long range UK weather forecast for winter 2013

BRITAIN faces months of freezing winds and heavy snow as long-range forecasters predict a “horror winter” ahead.

By: Nathan Rao
Published: Wed, November 13, 2013

Winter 2013 into 2014 is forecast to be “exceptionally severe” with above-average snowfall and plunging temperatures.

Long-range weather forecasts warn of bitter Arctic gales leading to feet-deep snow drifts right up until February.

Snow forecasts for winter 2013 suggest much of the country will be hit by heavy wintry downpours with no let up well into next year.

As lovers of the white stuff ask ‘will it snow?’ this winter, the general consensus among long-range forecasters is a resounding ‘yes’.

However they said winter could bring chaos similar to the big freeze of 2010/11 which saw airports close and roads grind to a standstill for months.

The warnings come as temperatures begin to dip around the UK with the first “real taste” of winter likely to hit next week.

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said Britain is braced for “copious” snowfall this winter with extreme cold expected to last into the spring.

He added that Britain faces “an incomparable scenario to anything we have experienced in modern times”.

He said: “An exceptionally prolonged period of widespread cold is highly likely to develop throughout this winter and last into next spring.

“It will be accompanied by snow drifts of several feet and long-lasting snow accumulations on a widespread scale.

“This period of snow and cold is likely to result in an incomparable scenario to anything we have experienced in modern times.

“A scenario similar to December 2010 is likely to develop, but on a more prolonged scale in terms of overall duration.”

January is likely to bring the worst of the weather although Britain will shiver in below-average temperatures for the next three months.

He said: “This is certainly a record-breaking and historical weather period which is likely to see one of the coldest and snowiest starts to British New Year in a very long time.”

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said this winter could be the worst for decades.

He said: “We are looking at something on a par with 2010 when Britain was hit by particularly bad big freeze.

“The focal point at this stage seems to be January, when we could see widespread heavy snow and below-average temperatures.

“This could stretch out for weeks, meaning we could be looking at the worst winter big freeze for decades.”

The Met Office said there is a chance temperatures will sink below average over the next 30 days with snow on the way.

Its 30-day outlook states: “Conditions are not expected to be as mild as recent weeks, instead, temperatures are thought more likely to be just below average than above.

“Snow is not unusual during late November and early December.

“So, with temperatures more likely to be just below average, the chance of seeing snow across the UK increases relative to recent weeks.”

Local Authorities are on standby for a particularly severe winter with gritters at the ready and more salt stockpiled than last year.


Berichten: 987
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Winterverwachting 2014 Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Di 26 Nov 2013, 14:59

Wintervoorspelling voor UK en West-Europa van Vantage Weather Services

17 november 2013

"Vantage Weather Services" lijkt een voortzetting van "Positive Weather Solutions" van de controversiële Jonathan Powell, want de site van "Positive Weather Solutions" verwijst door naar de site van "Vantage Weather Services" en de sites hebben dezelfde opmaak. Maar het opvallende is dan dat deze verwachting helemaal niet extreem is, dus geen gestrooi met termen als "horror winter" of "worst winter in decades"; het is juist verre van dat.

Positive Weather Solutions (PWS):
Vantage Weather Services (VWS):


Vantage Weather Services

Winter 2013/3014: A Taste of Winter's Past?

December 2013

December looks like being an unsettled month with no one particular pattern dominating the whole of the proceedings. During more settled phases of weather, frost and ice can be expected, perhaps severe with regards to frost. There will be a risk of sleet and snow, generally across northern and north eastern areas, with perhaps some southerly incursions, although anything sustained here is unlikely. Milder weather will be in evidence with wet and windy episodes, although around the festive period to the north and north east, perhaps conditions cold enough for a scattering of snow showers, making for a White Christmas. Drier than average for the month across northern areas, on the average to the south. Temperatures for December will reflect on or around the average.

January 2014

January generally looks a wetter and potentially colder month, possibly significantly colder, so combining the two looks likely to produce some snow events of note throughout the first month of 2014, but whilst the mix may favour chillier weather, milder and wetter weather will be in evidence at times. The emphasis on the snow will not just be across northern regions but fairly widespread at times, giving much of the UK a taste of winter's past, bringing the season more into line with how the weather should be for the time of year. Perhaps a few surprises during January. With regards to rainfall, a wetter than average month, with temperatures on or below the average.

February 2014

February is likely to inherit the cold that January has harboured, so potentially another cold month but perhaps with more of an even split between chillier conditions and milder, wetter ones, although February could still generate a wintry sting. The north and east look favoured to see the worst of what wintry weather February may produce, with possibly the south more spared, especially late month, although it is unlikely that the south will escape snow completely. On balance, another winter-like month with rainfall above the average, and temperatures on or around the average.


Sunday November 17th 2013

Een paar dagen later kwam nog een aanvullende reactie:


Friday November 22nd 2013


The timing of the release, (as regular visitors to the site will know), has been posted for several weeks now, and whereas VWS could state that the planning of the release was to coincide with the very cold and potentially wintry week to come, then, hands up, it is a coincidence but may be prophetic in some ways, (although VWS doubt's that). A mixed December would seem to be the theme, followed by a cold January and February. No real surprises, although with many long range forecasts failing to pick-up the sustained run of very warm and sunny weather during July, (until it was right upon us), one must expect a few surprises this winter, although surely not of a mild and a wet winter, as some quarters have suggested, and not just for this winter either, but for many to come. If there were lessons to be learned from long range predictions over recent years, one is that VWS's seasonal forecasts are based on searching for trends and patterns in historic data, using many algorithms to create projections, all not necessarily reaching the same outcome. What it doesn't account for is the random element, the element that gave us the fine run of summer weather for instance. In essence, LRF's are overviews only, a guide, but nothing more.

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