Weersverwachtingen winter 2011-2012 in Europa

Voor onderwerpen over de winter van 2011-2012, van november t/m maart, over zowel het actuele als het te verwachten weer.
Martijn
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Weersverwachtingen winter 2011-2012 in Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Wo 19 Okt 2011, 21:18

Verzameling van buitenlandse Engelstalige weersverwachtingen voor de winter van 2011-2012 in Europa.

Dit topic is voor het verzamelen van verwachtingen voor het winterweer in de komende winter van 2011-2012. De berichten gaan over zowel heel Europa als gebieden in Europa buiten Nederland.

Zie ook topic: Winterverwachtingen voor winter 2011-2012 in Nederland.

Martijn
Berichten: 951
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
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Re: Weersverwachtingen winter 2011-2012 in Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Wo 19 Okt 2011, 22:40

Ook in het buitenland waren er al vroeg voorspellingen voor de komende winter. Voor groot Britannië werd in september al door diverse mensen een vroege en strenge winter verwacht met veel sneeuw:

Bron: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... tober.html

Britain to be hit by SNOW in October... forecasters warn an early winter is on its way

By Jessica Satherley
Last updated at 12:04 PM on 20th September 2011

Britain is about to experience an early winter, with snow expected to arrive as soon as next month, forecasters have warned.

Temperatures over the next three months will plummet to below average with one long-range forecaster predicting snowfalls in October.

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said: ‘I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK.

‘I expect December, January and February to experience below-average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfall occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.

(...)

He added that Scotland and the North would face the worst weather, including possible ‘blizzard-like conditions’.

The UK and Ireland have also been forecast to experience extreme cold conditions and snow from the Arctic for prolonged periods.


(...)

WSI’s chief meteorologist, Dr Todd Crawford, told the Express: ‘We currently expect the coldest temperatures to be confined to western Europe.’

Last winter parts of the UK experienced up to 30 inches of snow and temperatures fell to -19C.


(...)

Martijn
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Re: Weersverwachtingen winter 2011-2012 in Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Do 20 Okt 2011, 17:01

Ook volgens James Madden is er een strenge winter op komst:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Ra ... ecast.html

UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Winter 2011/2012

A mild winter on the cards?

This winter certainly won't be remembered or be authenticated as being mild, neither will it be dominated by periods of mild weather. Some moderation at times, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK.

(...)

The most important factor within our weather forecasting calculations is solar activity and other major natural factors that it influences. Radiant energy from the sun is the primary influence on both the earth's ocean and atmosphere.

Low solar activity and ocean behaviour alter atmospheric circulation and block jet stream patterns that create enhanced moisture in terms of snowfall. The UK and Ireland is hit by prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions, as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop. Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air over the UK.

Coupled with other in depth factors such as recent volcanic activity and changes to the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift that we consider, this does not bode well for the severity of the UK and Northern European winter of 2011-12. Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas we expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. We have particular concerns as to the huge implications that this may pose to the infrastructure of the UK and Ireland transportation systems/economy.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
ExactaWeather.com

Martijn
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Re: Weersverwachtingen winter 2011-2012 in Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Do 20 Okt 2011, 17:48

Weather Services International (WSI) voorspelt ook een koude winter op basis van de NAO index:


Bron: http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/ ... 41422.html

Colder Than Average Winter Forecast For UK And Ireland

By Mark Dunphy - Tue Oct 11, 5:17 pm

Weather Services International (WSI), a member of The Weather Channel companies, is predicting a colder than average winter 2011-12 for Ireland and the UK and above-normal temperatures across the eastern mainland, Southeast Europe and most of the Nordic region.

“The high-latitude atmospheric blocking regime, as manifested by the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), is expected to dominate the pattern again across Europe during late autumn and early winter,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford.

“We currently expect the coldest temperatures to be confined to western Europe, as we do not expect the blocking to be as severe as during the last two winters”, he added.

(...)

Martijn
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Re: Weersverwachtingen winter 2011-2012 in Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Do 20 Okt 2011, 21:07

Zware winter voor Ierland verwacht:

Bron: http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Harsh- ... 92803.html

Harsh Irish winter en route - ‘little ice age’ predicted
Snow to return as early as November, says one expert

By ANTOINETTE KELLY,
IrishCentral.com Staff Writer

Published Wednesday, October 12, 2011, 11:03 AM
Updated Wednesday, October 12, 2011, 11:03 AM

Ireland could be facing into decades of harsh winters, according to new research about to be published in Nature magazine.

The study undertaken by by Britain's Met Office, shows there has been a fall in the sun’s ultra violet emissions, which could cause winters in Europe to become even harsher.


Forecasters have predicted the potential return of a weather pattern called La Nina, which has been linked to extreme weather around the world. It is brought on by a temperature drop in the Pacific Ocean and affects upper air currents. La Nina is thought to have been the cause of last year’s extreme weather conditions in Ireland.

This particular weather pattern is only supposed to return every three to five years, however scientists in have recorded temperatures that are below normal for this type of year.

“The possibility of a return to La Nina during the Northern Hemisphere fall (of) 2011 has increased over the past month," the Climate Prediction Center forecast stated in July.

Ian Currie of the Meteorological Society said that "all the world's weather systems are connected".

"What is going on now in the Pacific can have repercussions later around the world," he said.


Zie ook: http://www.irishweatheronline.com/forec ... ent-page-1
The model considers various factors that theoretically link the complex solar system magnetic field (which could be described as “space weather” or the state of the solar wind compared to average at various points in time. Then, using a theory that links the solar system magnetic field to earth’s upper atmosphere, the model derives a forecast of atmospheric variations from normal. A third and very significant step is to model in an independent set of variations based on lunar-atmospheric tidal effects.

The main point to keep in mind is that the forecast model is basically the sum of many small variations which, if they existed alone, would produce only slight variations in the weather day to day or year to year. But if there are twenty or more such variables all interacting, then the cumulative effects can become considerable. This particular seasonal forecast is fine tuned from “re-analysis” or a look back at recent seasonal forecast efforts and feedback into the research model from a study of timing or intensity errors.


Nota bene:

Voor het in het eerste artikel genoemde onderzoek naar het verband tussen de verminderde uitstoot van ultra violet straling door de zon en de barre winter in Europa de laatste jaren, zie topic: Mogelijk verband tussen zonneactiviteit en koude winters.

Martijn
Berichten: 951
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Weersverwachtingen winter 2011-2012 in Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Ma 24 Okt 2011, 15:51

Bron: http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditi ... V020111014

The NAO: bringing Europe a colder winter
Fri Oct 14, 2011 9:24am GMT

Oct 14 (Reuters) - Britain and western Europe are expected to see below average temperatures this winter as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) continues to dominate countries with exposure to the Atlantic Ocean, weather specialists said.

The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe.


The NAO is considered positive when pressures and heights are below normal over Greenland and Iceland (strong Icelandic low) and above normal at middle and subtropical latitudes (strong Bermuda-Azores high) -- and negative for the reverse anomalies.

The NAO has largely been negative during the past three winter seasons, causing cold and wet winters along Europe's Atlantic and North Sea coasts and wetter, windier weather across the Iberian Peninsula and Italy as westerly winds from the Atlantic are pushed South.

Most meteorologists expect it to dip again this winter.

The NAO has been positive in September and October, but it has begun to dip in recent days and has entered negative territory, according to data from the US National Weather Service.


Below is a summary of European seasonal weather forecasts:

WORLD CLIMATE SERVICE (WCS)


WCS said it expected the coming winter to be dominated by a negative phase of the NAO, resulting in colder, dryer, and less windy than average weather on the British Isles, in France, Germany, and the Nordic and Baltic countries.


Mediterranean countries should expect a mild, windy and wet winter.

"We expect another winter of unusual cold and occasionally disruptive snow from the British Isles and France across Germany and southern Scandinavia to the Baltic states," Richard James, senior meteorologist at WCS said.

"The highest likelihood of unusual cold appears to be in early to mid-winter (late November to January), with moderating conditions possible by February. Wet conditions will prevail in southern and southeastern Europe, but it will be generally dry in the north."

WCS also said that said that the negative NAO was likely to be a phenomenon that would dominate Europe's winters for years to come.

"There are definitely decadal trends and there is a chance that there could be a long negative NAO phase," James said, and added: "the last time we saw such a phase was in the 1950s and '60s," which was a period that dominated by cold winters in Europe.


WEATHER SERVICES INTERNATIONAL (WSI)

WSI, which specialises in weather information for use in the energy sector, said it expected temperatures from October to December to be below average in the UK and western European mainland, while the eastern mainland, Southeast Europe and most of the Nordic region will be warmer than average.

"The high-latitude atmospheric blocking regime, as manifested by the negative phase of the NAO, is expected to dominate the pattern again across Europe during late autumn and early winter," said WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford.

However, Crawford also said that he did not expect this winter to be as cold as the previous two.

"We don't expect a very cold winter this year," and added that it could be more like the on in 2008/2009, which saw below average temperatures but was slightly warmer than the following two winters.

THE WEATHER OUTLOOK (TWO)

TWO said it expected autumn 2011 weather conditions in Britain to be mixed and at times stormy, but possibly with "a wintry sting" during November.

Between October and the end of November, "temperatures are forecast to be close average, although with a slight bias towards colder than average conditions," TWO said.

TWO also said it expected overall autumn precipitation amounts to be close to or slightly above the average, although it also said that significant regional variations were expected across Britain.

EXACTA WEATHER

Exacta weather said it expected November, December, January, and February to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK.

"I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during November, December, and January," Exacta Weather's James Madden said.

POSITIVE WEATHER SOLUTIONS (PWS)

PWS said it expected November for most UK regions to be slightly drier than the norm and temperatures to approach average in the South-East, but turn out milder across some western and northern regions.

For the continental European regions of France, Germany and Switzerland, PWS said it expected temperatures to be cooler than average between October 2011 and Fabruary 2012.

"The last month of autumn looks rather variable, with dry and damper influences each trying to predominate," PWS's Ray Anthony said. (Compiled by Henning Gloystein and Philip Baillie)

© Thomson Reuters 2011 All rights reserved



Zie ook topic: Invloed Noord-Atlantische Oscillatie (NAO) op winter

Martijn
Berichten: 951
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
Locatie: Gaasterland, Friesland

Re: Weersverwachtingen winter 2011-2012 in Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Ma 24 Okt 2011, 17:19

Bron: http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/ ... 41736.html

UK Met Office Pours Cold Water On Severe Winter 2011-12 Forecasts

By Mark Dunphy - Fri Oct 14, 12:08 pm

The UK Met Office has distanced itself from recent media reports that the UK and Ireland are set for an ‘Arctic Winter’. The UKMO, which stopped issuing seasonal forecasts in 2010, also has said that recent long range forecasts by other agencies “bear no relation to the kinds of weather that forecasters at the Met Office are currently expecting”.

iWeather Online (IWO) also has forecast that Ireland and the UK are unlikely to see a repeat of the pre-Christmas freeze of 2010. Temperatures are expected to remain below average for much of the coming season, however, according to the IWO forecast.

In an opinion piece for The Times, UKMO Chief Executive John Hirst called for a sense of reason in response to the claims of other forecasting agencies in weeks.

According to the UK Met Office: “Over the past few weeks, there have been some colourful headlines in some parts of the media about what’s in store for this year’s winter in the UK. Reports of ‘-20C within weeks’, ‘A winter fuel crisis on the way’ and ‘Widespread snow in October’ have all raised expectations that we’re in for an ‘Arctic winter’. [These headlines] bear no relation to the kinds of weather that forecasters at the Met Office are currently expecting – there is no need for alarm.”

(...)

According to the UKMO’s John Hirst: “These stories do reflect our national obsession with the weather but they can also confuse and even scare vulnerable people. The Met Office’s job is to provide accurate and reliable information and at this stage we see no scientific evidence to support these premature predictions.

In fact the scientific capability does not exist to allow such extremes to be identified on a long-range timescale… no forecaster can say whether we’ll see a week of -20C temperatures in Manchester in the second week of December. This does not mean that harsh winter conditions are not possible, just that they cannot be identified at the moment.”

(...)

Martijn
Berichten: 951
Lid geworden op: Ma 1 Nov 2010, 21:56
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Re: Weersverwachtingen winter 2011-2012 in Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Di 25 Okt 2011, 0:59

Bron: http://retro.met.no/sesongvarsler/index.html

Geschatte temperatuur afwijkingen van de normaal (anomalie) in de periode november 2011 - januari 2012

Afbeelding
Geschatte temperatuur afwijkingen van de normaal (anomalie) in de periode november 2011 - januari 2012 voor Scandinavië.

The seasonal outlook for temperature for Norway for the period November 2011 - January 2012 is circa 1 °C above the normal for the Eastern part of the county of Finnmark. The outlook for a greater part of the rest of Norway is 1-2 °C above the normal. For the inner part of the county of Nordland and South-Norway it is slightly above 2 °C. The normal period 1961-1990 is used here. It is important to keep in mind that the values presented in the map are three monthly averages. Information about the different months is not given. The seasonal outlook is only made for the temperature at present and does not give any information about expected precipitation.

Martijn
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Re: Weersverwachtingen winter 2011-2012 in Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Di 25 Okt 2011, 2:01

Wintervoorspelling van AccuWeather voor Europa: ergste kou en sneeuw in Zuidoost Europa. Temperatuur boven normaal in West-Europa. Voor Nederland een zachte winter met normale neerslag.

Bron: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/euro/s ... 112012.asp

AccuWeather European Weather Blog

Winter Forecast 2011-2012
Oct 20, 2011; 3:26 PM ET

(...)

We are looking at a much different winter than we saw last year. Some of the highlights of last year include some very chilly air over most of the continent early in the year, from November through December. London saw an average temperature of 7.5 degrees below normal for the month of December, and remember all that snow too. We are not looking like we will see such a cold time this year. That harsh start to the year was from a strongly negative NAO as the cold air just kept coming from the Arctic and would not stop. This year, it looks like we will at least start with a near to slightly above normal NAO, which would show a ridge over western Europe and a trough over eastern Europe. Don't forget that when we do see a ridge over western Europe, we can see some much colder than normal temperature over parts of eastern Europe normally, and it looks like we will have this also.

(...)

But let's look closer at the forecast. We are looking at a weather pattern where we see a mean ridge of high pressure over western Europe and a trough digging over eastern Europe. With this trough digging into eastern Europe we are looking at seeing some chilly temperatures over the higher elevations of southeastern Europe, where the opposite will be seen over Spain and Portugal.

(...)

Below is a graphic with our thinking for the winter across the continent. Also note the less snowfall than last winter area over the U.K. and Ireland. This is going to be a key as last year we saw so much snowfall in the London area. We may struggle to see even a few flakes this year in the air down to London.

Afbeelding

Now, some of the big things to hit on this year will be some threats we could see over the continent from this type of pattern. Number one will be the significant snowfall and cold weather over southeastern Europe. Last year we had lots of rain and precip, but temperatures were so mild we struggled to see much snowfall. This year will see less in the way of precipitation, but we will see more cold air around. This trough is likely to last for the entire year, so this may be a big item to look at for the next several months.

(...)

Martijn
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Re: Weersverwachtingen winter 2011-2012 in Europa

Berichtdoor Martijn » Di 25 Okt 2011, 17:13

Hieronder een prognose uit Duitsland voor het winterweer en kerstweer in winter 2011/2012: sneeuw en water zonder einde! De winter van 2011/12 zal natter worden dan in de zomer van 2011.


Bron: http://www.killikus.de/wetter-ostsee-kl ... utschland/

Prognose für das Winterwetter und Weihnachtswetter im Winter 2011/2012

Schnee und Wasser ohne Ende! Der Winter 2011/12 wird feuchter als im Sommer 2011.

Winterwetter: Die grafische Darstellungen der Winter und dem Winterwetter in Norddeutschland, zwischen 2006 und 2010, zeigt erhebliche Unterschiede in den Winter-Anlaufzeiten. Obwohl die Winter in Norddeutschland eher feuchtnass bis leicht frostig sind, zeigte der Winter 2010, trotz der Klimaerwärmung, dass ein echter Winter in Norddeutschland zu jederzeit möglich ist. Für einen Winter in Norddeutschland müssen die Temperaturen bereits im Oktober spürbar sinken und Anfang November möglichst die Nullgrad Grenze erreichen. Auch wenn es in den nachfolgenden Wochen nochmals zu einer kurzzeitigen Erwärmung kommen sollte, besteht bei einer solchen Wetterlage/Wettertendenz (s. Diagramm Abbildung 2010) mit Temperaturen um die Nullgradgrenze Anfang November (Norddeutschland), eine echte Chance auf Weiße Weihnachten und einen Winter mit viel Schnee und niedrigen Temperaturen in den Monaten nach Neujahr.

(...)


Zie bron voor volledig artikel, met discussie over de afgelopen winters en de verschuiving van het begin van de winter.


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